More rain expected in Aylesbury Vale as wet summer continues across the country

Our expert’s latest forecast
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A year on from July 2022’s record-breaking heatwave, which saw temperatures in the UK reach 40C for the first time, July 2023 was in stark contrast, with conditions feeling autumnal at times. With the jet stream tracking further south, low pressure systems swept in from the Atlantic, bringing regular outbreaks of rainfall. The moist air also gave rise to frequent episodes of heavy showers and sometimes thunderstorms, thanks to strong convective activity fuelled by summer warmth.

The UK as a whole experienced its sixth-wettest July since records began, with an average of 140.mm falling across the country. The Met Office Midlands climate district, of which Buckinghamshire is a part, received 116.2mm, 78% more than the usual July rainfall when compared to the 1991-2020 climate average.

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Thunderstorms and strong winds expected in Aylesbury Vale as autumnal weather co...
More rain is anticipated this week. (Photo by Ian Gavan/Getty Images)More rain is anticipated this week. (Photo by Ian Gavan/Getty Images)
More rain is anticipated this week. (Photo by Ian Gavan/Getty Images)
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Despite summer heat playing a part in July’s weather, it was an underwhelming month in terms of warmth. Temperatures in Buckinghamshire generally struggled to get out of the low 20s Celsius, only exceeding 25C on two days, and failing to reach 20C altogether on four. The average daily maximum temperature for the Midlands climate district was 20.1C, in comparison to the 1991-2020 average of 21.4C. The district also saw less sunshine, receiving just 76% of the average number of sunshine hours.

Following a similarly unsettled start to August, including Storm Atoni, conditions will be a little more settled over the next couple of days, with plenty of warm and dry weather expected for Wednesday and Thursday. This is not set to last, however, with further spells of rain sweeping in from the Atlantic on Friday and over the weekend, this likely amplified by convective activity.