New poll predicts Labour will gain four Tory seats in Bucks at general election including Aylesbury

Labour will gain four Buckinghamshire seats from the Conservatives at the next general election, including taking Wycombe from Steve Baker, polling data has found.

Mr Baker’s fellow Tory MPs Iain Stewart, Ben Everitt and Rob Butler will also be ousted from their respective constituencies of Milton Keynes South, Milton Keynes North and Aylesbury, according to Electoral Calculus.

The political forecasting site also predicts that Tory MPs Greg Smith and Joy Morrissey will hold their Buckingham and Beaconsfield seats, while Liberal Democrat MP Sarah Green will keep Chesham and Amersham.

Electoral Calculus, which aggregates all the latest polls, predicts a Labour majority as the likeliest outcome in a snap general election at 93 per cent, with only a two per cent chance of a majority for the Tories.

Mr Baker has admitted that he could lose his Wycombe seat due to the transfer of the Hazlemere ward to Chesham and Amersham under boundary changes recommended by the Boundary Commission for England.

He told the BBC Local Democracy Reporting Service: “I am very stoical about this. Politics is what it is. It is not personal. I lose my best ward. I lose Hazlemere.

“Without Hazlemere, the numbers show that this seat would go red. That means that at the election, people are going to have very serious choices.”

Asked if he was hopeful about keeping his seat at the next general election, Mr Baker replied: “Yes.

“But as I have said in every general election, we never take anything for granted. It is a foolish politician who takes anything for granted.”

The MP claimed that Labour wants to impose “unaffordable” costs on the public in aiming for the UK to reach Net Zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 to tackle climate change.

He also said that the Tories would deliver “practical projects” with the money saved from the recent scaling back of HS2, while the party would “top the boats” – a reference to migrants crossing the English Channel from France to the UK.

Mr Baker also claimed that his Wycombe seat would be of “national significance” at the next general election due to the Hazlemere boundary change.

He added: “I have never taken anything for granted. I go into all these campaigns hopeful and optimistic.

“It is because I trust the people. If the people of Wycombe want to be poorer, they will vote Labour and if they want to be better off, they will vote Conservative.”

The next general election is due by January 2025 at the latest, but the Prime Minister can call one early if he wants.

The next time the public head to the polls, Mr Baker will be up against Labour candidate Emma Reynolds, the former MP for Wolverhampton North East.

Electoral calculus predicts that the Labour candidate for Wycombe will get 49.6 per cent of the vote share compared to 28.6 per cent for their Conservative opposite number.