A new poll suggests Aylesbury’s Parliamentary representative may once again come from the Conservative Party.

Data released by YouGov yesterday has the Tories as favourites to win Aylesbury’s Parliamentary seat.

Just over a year ago, the same market research firm had Reform UK as the most likely vote winners in the constituency.

This change follows larger patterns found in the new findings with Labour and the Conservatives now projected to win more seats than Reform UK.

Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch speaks at Fleet Marston Farm on November 17, 2025. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)

placeholder image — Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch speaks at Fleet Marston Farm on November 17, 2025. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)

YouGov’s figures have Labour winning the most seats at a future election but the UK being left with a hung Parliament.

Labour is projected to win 241 seats with the Conservatives expected to finish second with 130 seats, narrowly ahead of Reform UK on 123.

Using over 8,000 responses YouGov has built a MRP model to predict the result of every constituency’s vote.

Mid Buckinghamshire, a new Parliamentary area created ahead of the 2024 General Election, predicts a Conservative hold. Greg Smith, who was previously the MP for Buckingham is the current Tory representative in the region which includes Aylesbury Vale areas such as Wendover.

The altered Buckingham and Bletchley constituency is expected to be won by the Conservatives. Currently, Labour’s Callum Anderson is the representative of the constituency that spans Buckinghamshire and Milton Keynes’ council areas.

Analysis of YouGov polls has noted that Labour seems to be regaining popularity since Andy Burnham took over the country’s top job from Keir Starmer.

It also suggests that Reform UK’s popularity has dropped across the country. Last June, the Nigel Farage-led party was expected to win the most seats in Parliament.

Reform UK’s potential losses could be the Conservatives gain, a year ago polling suggested the party could finish fourth overall in a General Election. YouGov’s latest projections suggest Kemi Badenoch’s group could be neck-and-neck with Reform.

YouGov’s breakdown would see a Conservative candidate win 24% of the vote share with the Liberal Democrats, Reform, and Labour all getting 20%, the Greens are expected to receive an 11% share.

In Mid Buckinghamshire a comfortable win for the Conservatives is expected with a 36% share, Liberal Democrats are expected to come second with 24%, Reform third with 17%, Labour fourth with 12%, and the Greens fifth with 8%.

A tight battle is expected in Buckingham and Bletchley where YouGov has the Conservatives getting a 27% share of the votes, with Labour receiving 26%, Reform UK is projected to come third with 23%, and the Greens are expected to take 11%, with the Liberal Democrats getting 8% of all votes.