First YouGov poll since 2024 General Election has Reform UK winning in Aylesbury

YouGov released the findings of its latest MRP analysis predicting which party is the most popular in the UK and therefore the most likely to win a General Election.

This is the first detailed report the firm has released since last year’s General Election when Labour won a resounding majority.

History was made in Aylesbury where a female MP and a politician representing Labour was elected for the first time.

However, YouGov latest findings suggest Aylesbury will elect a Reform UK politician if an election was imminent. YouGov’s predictions would see current Aylesbury MP Laura Kyrke-Smith attracting 21% of the votes finishing third behind Reform UK with 24%, and the Conservative Party with 23%. According to YouGov the Liberal Democrats would receive 19% of the votes and the Green Party 12%.

In May’s local elections a majority of Aylesbury’s councillors came from the Liberal Democrat Party, but the Conservatives remained the most popular party throughout the county.

Although the Tories lost their majority control of Bucks Council, they remain the best-represented party with 48 councillors, 27 represent the Liberal Democrats, 19 councillors are independent, and the county elected its first three Reform UK councillors.

Elsewhere in Buckinghamshire, the recently created Mid Buckinghamshire boundary which comprises Princes Risborough, and other parts of Aylesbury Vale, is expected to remain in Conservative control. Currently, former Buckingham MP Greg Smith represents the area.

The Buckingham and Bletchley constituency, where Callum Anderson of Labour is the current incumbent, is also expected to be a Reform UK gain. Amersham and Chesham’s Parliamentary seat is expected to remain in Liberal Democrat control and Beaconsfield is expected to be held by the Conservatives. Wycombe is expected to remain a Labour area.

In nearby Milton Keynes, both seats are expected to remain Labour areas. And the Liberal Democrats are expected to hold onto power in Thame and Henley.

Nationally, YouGov anticipates a hung parliament with the Reform Party winning the most seats in the UK. According to yesterday’s poll results, Labour would have the second-most seats, and the Liberal Democrats would remain in the third position, with the Conservative Party falling to fourth place.