Sunny spells likely over the next couple of days in Aylesbury Vale, but with chilly nights and possible frosts

It has been a very dry February in Aylesbury Vale, despite some recent showery days. And despite the chance of a few showers drifting in at times, there is little sign of any more substantial rain.

Recent weather models are suggesting that high pressure is expected to dominate over the next several days, perhaps not relenting until the second week of March.

The lack of a rainfall is a cause for concern, given that winter rainfall is valuable for replenishing water, especially after the drought conditions last summer. Evaporation is reduced in winter compared to the summer because of the shorter days and lower sun angle, so more of the rainfall is ‘useable’.

Although October and November were wetter than average, the Vale has experienced some particularly dry weather since mid-January.

High pressure over or near the UK is not uncommon at this time of year. Despite some unsettled periods this winter, there has been a distinct lack of deep areas of low pressure, with the Met Office yet to name any winter storms.

Of course, deep areas of low pressure are not required to produce significant rainfall. Many of the greater rain-producing events come from slack lows that linger over a given region. The latest models show no sign of any such events, with high pressure expected to stay close by to the north-west.

Sunny spells are likely over the next couple of days in Aylesbury Vale, but with chilly nights and the potential for some frosts. The dry and settled conditions look set to continue into the weekend.