Hot temperatures and thunderstorms set to hit Aylesbury Vale, weather expert reports

June 2023 marked an extended period of warm and hot weather in the UK, with temperatures reaching as high as 32°C in some parts of south-east England. While falling short of the record- breaking 40°C seen in July of the previous year, this June was the hottest for a considerable portion of England since 1846, nearly 180 years ago.

The Met Office maintains an extensive temperature database for the UK, spanning back to 1884.

Based on this data, it is now certain that June 2023 will be officially recognised as the hottest June in the UK since the start of this record-keeping period. Prior to 1884, there are limited reliable long- term temperature records for the entire UK.

Instead, scientists rely on the Central England Temperature (CET) series, which dates back to 1659. Compiled by Gordon Manley in 1953, this series is based on records from a triangular region encompassing Lancashire, London, and Bristol. It is the longest instrumental temperature record globally and it is still regularly updated by the Met Office Hadley Centre.

The mean CET for June 2023 is 17.1C, which is approximately 2.5°C hotter than the 1990-2020 average.

The exceptional warmth experienced in the UK during June 2023 can be attributed to two main factors. Firstly, sea surface temperatures in the north Atlantic and around the British Isles have been at or near record highs, resulting in warmer winds blowing over the region. Secondly, high-

pressure systems moving slowly or being ‘blocked’ over or near Britain and Ireland led to prolonged periods of settled and dry weather.

Throughout the remainder of this week warmth will build, reaching the high 20s Celsius by this weekend, but into next week there is likely to be a thundery breakdown followed by low pressure close to the UK bringing a greater chance of frequent showers and temperatures returning to normal.

Currently the Met Office has not forecast temperatures that would meet last year’s highs when many parts of the UK broke the 40°C barrier. But the forecaster has noted that last month’s weather was unusual for its “persistent warmth for much of [June]”.